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Hand played on |
September 4th 2008 |
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Board number |
Blue Section, Board 22 |
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Dealer |
East |
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Vulnerability |
EW Vulnerable |
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Submitted by |
Alaric Cundy |
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North ♠A952 ♥AKT ♦KQT ♣983 |
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West ♠QJT ♥J8 ♦62 ♣T7542 |
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East ♠743 ♥Q743 ♦J94 ♣AJ6 |
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North |
Bidding:
East |
South |
West |
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|
♠K86 ♥9652 ♦A853 ♣KQ |
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3NT
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No End |
1NT
|
No |
The bidding was straightforward, and the play might have turned out that way too, but...
West led the ♣2. East won the opening lead and returned the ♣J, taken by Declarer. East described the lead style as 'generally 4th best', so armed with that knowledge, our 'unlucky expert' (UE) Declarer planned the play.
There were 8 top tricks, and a ninth would materialise if the diamonds behaved well. UE noted that the initial ♣2 lead implied a nice 4-4 break in that suit. He also noted that a 3-3 break in diamonds was a worse than 50% line. There was an additional chance that the ♦J might come down in two rounds, taking the chances of success by relying on the diamond suit to a little bit over 50%. But he saw a way of greatly improving the chances by playing a heart to Dummy's ten at trick 2. Firstly, there is a 25% chance that West holds both the ♥Q and ♥J, and if that were the case then the ten would hold the trick, to give him immediately his ninth - and he could still get a possible tenth from the diamonds. Further, against the odds, but if West's heart holding was precisely QJx then Declarer could make ten tricks as all four hearts would 'come in'. If on top of that the diamonds behaved nicely then he would accumulate 11 tricks. More likely, however, in the 'worst possible case' scenario, the ♥T would lose to East. East / West could now cash their remaining two clubs, but Declarer was guaranteed 9 tricks if EITHER the hearts broke 3-3 OR if the second top heart came down in two rounds OR if the diamonds yielded four tricks. UE was too tired to work out the precise chances of success of a heart to the ten, but it was clearly something like 80%, with the added bonus that it could result in ten or even 11 tricks. Thus relying solely on the diamond suit was a bit better than a 50% chance, but a heart to the ten at trick three raised the chances of success to around 80%.
Our UE duly followed the percentage play...
Of course it all went horribly wrong when it transpired that West had led the 5th best of 5 rather than 4th of four clubs, so the defenders took not their two more club tricks as expected, but three more. To rub salt in the wound, the diamonds DID behave nicely, so our UE achieved the distinction of being the only Declarer out of twelve who failed to make this lay-down 3NT contract...
Fortunately, UE's partner demonstrated an understanding of the subtleties of the moment by bursting into hysterical laughter...